Zombie Gunship Survival

Calculate optimal out shots in the steel/soft-tip dart game of 501.

Do you ever wonder about the basis of the standard out charts displayed in your local pub? Do you believe them? Do you wish they were tailored for your skill level? Do you wonder if alternatives exist that are just as good, if not better? Do you wish you knew how often you will actually win the game? Use this app to address these questions and more!

This version is limited to 70 remaining points or less. Search for "Dart Out Optimizer" for versions that allow more than this.

Endorsements:

* Metroplex Dart Association

* Fort Worth Dart Association

Features

Select the board type (steel-tip or soft-tip) and for soft-tip, the type of bull scoring (split-bull or fat-bull) and out type (double, master, or open).

Select the points remaining, darts remaining, your skill level, and whether or not you're under pressure to go out.

The top ten recommended shot sequences are calculated with the probability of winning the game shown for each.

In advanced mode, specify your opponent's remaining points and skill level.

The amount a player misses the center of a target is assumed to be normally distributed with novice players having a larger variance than expert players.

If a player throws at a given target, many possible outcomes are possible and the probability of hitting each is calculated. For example, if Triple-20 (T20) is the target, possible outcomes include T20, 20, D20, T5, 5, T1, 1, etc. The distribution of where the dart actually lands is centered on the target and integrated over the area of each possible outcome to get the probability of that outcome.

The probabilities of each outcome given each target are used in an optimization algorithm to identify the recommended sequences of targets.

Slop is explicitly accounted for. For example, if the target on the first dart is T20 and T5 is accidentally hit, the target of the second dart is adjusted accordingly. All possible outcomes of the first dart are considered, the targets on subsequent darts are adjusted for each, and the probability of success for each are summed to get the probability of success for a given target of the first dart.

Each out can be drilled into to see the tree of slop possibilities and the adjusted subsequent darts.

Whether or not the player is under pressure to go out in this round is accounted for. If the player is not under pressure, setting up the next round may make more sense than trying to go out in this round and possibly leaving a difficult point total for the next round.

The player's skill level is accounted for. Expert players have different shot recommendations than novice players due to their higher likelihood of hitting a target and not having to rely as much on slopping fortunate outcomes.

Targets include not only triples, doubles, fats, and bull, but also the wires between fats (e.g., 6/10 wire) and triples (e.g., T8/T16 wire). For example, the 6/10 wire is a good target with 46 points remaining to leave either D20 or D18.